Dr. Steven McCabe, Associate Professor - Birmingham City University
Reflecting on 2022 and speculating on what’s likely to occur politically and economically in 2023, it’s worth bearing in mind the tendency for predictions to be proved wrong. Former option trader, Lebanese American writer, risk analyst and, significantly, aphorist, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, warns against trying to second-guess the future.
As Taleb passionately asserts, the future is inherently uncertain. Trying to make even ‘educated’ guesses to deal with socio-political or economic phenomena, Taleb warns, will prove a fools’ game.
It’s worth recalling how Talab achieved worldwide fame
In April 2007, Random House in the United States and Allen Lane in the United Kingdom, published The Black Swan. This book, some might contend for a man warning against predictions, presciently foretold the banking crisis, better known as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), which occurred a year later. The GFC li...