Carl Richardson, Joint Managing Partner – Richardson Capital LLP
It was Professor Stephen Hawking who said, “you cannot predict the future.”
Yet, with all due respect to the late cosmologist, one prediction for the year ahead that appears safe to make is that the eyes of the world will be on the United States of America in 2026.
For many decades, the US has exercised an outsized influence on the rest of the world. The size of its economy, influence of its culture and sheer might of its military capabilities means that what America says or does has long had an impact well beyond its borders.
Following President Trump’s triumphant return to the White House earlier this year, it is clear we are witnessing a profound shift in how the US interacts with the rest of the world. It is nothing less than a historic uprooting of an established international order that the US itself put in place at the end of the Second World War 80 years ago.
On trade, on diplomacy, on war and peace, the old multilateral international order is being replaced by a muscular America First posture that elevates transactional deals over long-term alliances and national interest over shared values and rules.
2026 presents the President with two golden opportunities to demonstrate his new refashioned America to the world and to ensure that he continues to dominate the global news agenda in his own unique fashion.
The first is the FIFA World Cup, taking place in the US, along with Canada and Mexico, through June and July.
The World Cup is the largest and most watched single sport event in the world, with the 2026 version having been ‘super-sized’ to accommodate 48 nations.
At a time when the world feels more divided than in many years, it is a sporting event that will bring countries from all corners of the globe together. Familiar faces such as Brazil, Argentina, Spain and of course England, will rub shoulders with less likely names such as Cape Verde, Curacao and Haiti.
The World Cup can also demonstrate how the US can work in tandem with its neighbours, and co-hosts, Canada and Mexico.
Trade tensions have been simmering recently between this trio, with a particular focus on whether or not the US will retain the tripartite USMCA free trade agreement between the countries, or seek to secure separate bilateral deals.
This agreement has been in place since 1994 and has, in some sectors, shielded business to the north and south of the US from the impact of US tariffs.
Advocates of free trade will hope that the ‘entente cordial’ on display at the Kennedy Center in Washington DC earlier this month (December) at the World Cup draw will carry through to the USMCA joint review, which takes place next year.
The second big moment for Trump and America falls right in the middle of the World Cup when the country celebrates the 250th anniversary of its birth as a nation with Philadelphia, the city where the Declaration of Independence was adopted hosting a game that day.
Of course, for some of us Brits, seeing our American brethren celebrate Independence Day is somewhat bittersweet, given that it marked the divorce from the UK. But two and half centuries on, the relationship between our countries is extremely strong.
The US is the UK’s largest single trading partner for both goods and services, with the annual value of trade exceeding £330 billion last year. The US is also the UK’s largest source of imports, which, when added to the relationship that exists around security and defence, helps to demonstrate the mutual benefits that each country brings to the other.
The attractiveness of the American market is something that our own international investment business (www.richardsons.co.uk) has long sought to capitalise on, with a series of long-term investments made and relationships built from east to west coast.
Our family foundation has also endowed a scholarship at George Washington University, a leading institution in the field of international relations, to support students and further strengthen our ties across the pond.
While 2025 has undoubtedly been a turbulent year, the attractiveness of the US for investment and the scale of opportunity that exists there remains extremely strong. We expect that to continue in 2026, and aim to do more business in the US throughout the year.
We may even schedule a visit to New Jersey for mid-July, just to see if we can capture a glimpse of President Trump handing the World Cup trophy over to Harry Kane. One can but dream…